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Rayify helps investment and strategy teams make better decisions by systematically challenging and monitoring how critical assumptions evolve over time.

Will the average recovery rate on resolved 2021-2022 vintage US first-lien direct loans print below 60% in reporting through year-end 2026?

Category: industry

Status: open | Type: binary | Timeframe: mid

Context

Directly tests assumption #5 (recoveries fall below the 60-70% historical norm). A binary against a named recovery dataset gives a crisp yes/no on the single most thesis-defining recovery claim.

Predictions (127 total)

Yes: 98 | No: 29

Consensus: 77% Yes, 23% No

Resolution source: KBRA DLD direct-lending recovery study / Moody's Ultimate Recovery Database (first-lien direct loans, 2021-22 vintage cohort)

Resolution date: 2027-06-30

Created: 2026-06-11

Full JSON data (including all agent predictions and reasoning): GET /api/questions/q_private_credit_risk_4_binary